Through a cynical exploitation of the liberation aspirations of the masses in Iran, and by manipulating the security fears of the masses in Israel, Trump and Netanyahu have launched a war that now directly involves most Middle Eastern states \u2014 and has spilled beyond that. This is yet another catastrophic turning point for the masses across the region within the ongoing blood-soaked crisis since 7 October 2023. It is the most extensive military action initiated so far by the Trump administration, and the first time the State of Israel has openly assassinated a head of state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Preparations for the imperialist offensive continued for months and began almost immediately after the previous attack in June, which concluded with the bombing of Iran using the most powerful non\u2011nuclear weapon in the world, and with\u00a0Trump\u2019s declaration<\/a>\u00a0of\u00a0\u201cCONGRATULATIONS WORLD, IT\u2019S TIME FOR PEACE\u201d<\/em>, as well as\u00a0Netanyahu\u2019s boasting<\/a>\u00a0of the removal of\u00a0\u201ctwo existential threats\u201d<\/em>\u00a0\u2014 nuclear and ballistic \u2014 and of a victory that\u00a0\u201cwill stand for generations\u201d<\/em>. Within days it became clear that the military hits had not been at a strategic level, that the regime in Tehran was not crawling towards a surrender agreement with Trump, and it soon became evident that Netanyahu was failing to reap political gains and decided to avoid snap elections and continue the genocidal offensive in Gaza. Now, the assassination of Iran\u2019s ruler Ali Khamenei and other senior regime figures on the first day of the offensive symbolised an escalation in aims, firepower, and the scope of the campaign. Trump and Netanyahu openly turned to a more aggressive promotion of the idea of intervention for regime change, even though they currently have no clear horizon for achieving it, and they threaten that the offensive will continue for weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Accordingly, the counter\u2011offensive launched by the regime in Tehran has also developed on an unprecedented scale, including strikes on a series of US military targets and on civilian targets in territories under most Arab states in the region. UAVs reached as far as the skies of Cyprus and Azerbaijan, and a ballistic missile launched from Iran was intercepted on its way towards Turkish airspace, a NATO member. The Iranian regime at least partially closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% of global oil output passes, and caused disruptions to liquefied gas (LNG) production in Qatar. Global energy prices have surged and stock markets across Asia have recorded declines. Tens of thousands of flights have been cancelled so far.\u00a0The longer the crisis continues, the more it may both fuel price hikes and also push the global economy towards recession.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The US military has sunk Iranian vessels, including a warship in the Indian Ocean, off the coast of Sri Lanka, thousands of kilometres from Iran. In Lebanon, Israeli military attacks had already escalated even before the offensive in Iran, and now the operations of the occupying ground forces have been expanded, accompanied by a call for all residents of Lebanon south of the Litani River to move northwards. According to reports, there are hundreds of thousands of displaced people. Hezbollah joined the counter\u2011offensive in a limited capacity by launching missiles towards the State of Israel following the assassination of Khamenei \u2014 this coming a year and a half after the Israeli assassination of the organisation\u2019s secretary\u2011general, Nasrallah. It is also possible that the Houthi regime in Yemen will intervene.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The entire Israeli ruling class has once again rallied to strengthen Netanyahu\u2019s government and its military actions through security demagogy, identifying an opportunity for what they see as geo\u2011strategic gains in the form of weakening up to potentially toppling the regime in Tehran, the central link in the weakened \u201cAxis of Resistance\u201d alliance in the region. The Israeli right\u2011wing regime continues with the logic of a bloody campaign which, through an unprecedented display of military force, seeks to reshape the balance of power in the region by expanding the operational range of the war machine, extending the territorial scope of military occupation, and deepening the oppression and dispossession of the Palestinian people through acts of ethnic cleansing, centred on the annihilation offensive in the Gaza Strip \u2014 which continues, albeit at lower intensity, during the partial ceasefire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n As of 5 March,\u00a0over a thousand civilians<\/a>\u00a0have been killed so far in Iran,\u00a0including around 150 schoolgirls<\/a>.\u00a0More than 120 have been killed in Lebanon<\/a>. In Israel, around 12 people have been killed in the counter\u2011offensive, including children and adults in a poor working\u2011class neighbourhood in Beit Shemesh, and a care worker from the Philippines in Tel Aviv \u2014 the chief responsibility for the killing of civilians in Israel lies with the Israeli government, which chose to launch the war. In the Arab Gulf states, around 10 civilians have been killed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Across the world, demonstrations against the new offensive were organised from the very first day, both by opponents of the regime in Tehran and by its supporters, including Shia communities for whom Iran\u2019s ruler was a religious symbol. In Pakistan and Iraq, protesters stormed US diplomatic buildings \u2014 and dozens of demonstrators in Pakistan were shot dead. In Bahrain, which has a Shia majority, protests were organised against the offensive. Conversely, demonstrations in support of the offensive are also being organised, led by Iranian exiles and migrants, apparently including monarchist elements hoping for the restoration of the Shah\u2019s dictatorship, as well as others tempted by the false \u201cliberation\u201d propaganda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The fireworks in Tehran in response to the killing of the tyrant, and expressions of joy among some Iranian communities around the world, reflect understandable feelings among parts of the Iranian population, given the murderous repression used by the regime to crush the heroic struggles of the masses for freedom and welfare \u2014 including workers fighting for wages and living conditions, and struggles against gender oppression and the policing of women\u2019s bodies. Yet the offensive, carried out by nuclear powers responsible for sanctions that intensify the plight of the masses, is likely also enabling the regime, to some extent, to re\u2011cohere its support base across Iran around \u201canti\u2011imperialist\u201d propaganda, particularly among the \u2018Revolutionary Guards\u2019, the Basij militia, and sections of the army.\u00a0Only the masses in Iran, under the leadership of the working class in society and in collaboration and solidarity with the masses across the region and the world, will be able to liberate themselves.\u00a0<\/strong>This as a part of a struggle against all the oppressive regimes in the region \u2014 including the occupation and domination imposed on millions of Palestinians \u2014 and for democratic and socialist states that will operate within a framework of confederative coordination, on a democratic and socialist basis, to secure the future of the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The semi\u2011mass movement in Iran at the beginning of the year, which was crushed by murderous persecution, exposed a deep crisis within the regime. Western imperialist leaders sensed this weakness and returned with renewed vigour to \u201cliberation\u201d propaganda. This is aimed at manipulating the aspirations and struggles of the masses in order to harness them to an agenda of regime change in favour of one willing to dance to Trump\u2019s tune. Speeches by Netanyahu and Trump were broadcast by hacking into Iranian television before the bombing of the broadcasting authority. This represents a further strengthening of the vector of destabilising the regime in pursuit of its replacement, even though the architects of the US\u2013Israeli offensive have no certainty as to how far they can go in the current round. The longer the offensive continues, the more likely it is to lead to scenarios of the central regime collapsing in parts of Iran, and the possible development of a prolonged sectarian civil war similar to Libya after the fall of Gaddafi\u2019s regime. One potential trend in this direction emerges, for example, from reports that\u00a0the CIA and Mossad are actively working to rely on the infiltration of Kurdish militias<\/a>\u00a0into Iranian Kurdistan as part of a plan to destabilise the regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The US Secretary of War, Hegseth,\u00a0declared<\/a>\u00a0that the offensive\u00a0\u201cisn\u2019t a war for regime change \u2014 but the regime is changing\u201d<\/em>, meaning as a result of the assassinations within the regime\u2019s upper echelon. The power structure of the regime is undergoing an upheaval that has not yet concluded, but it remains an open question to what extent, for example,\u00a0Ali Larijani<\/a>, head of the Supreme National Security Council \u2014 who, according to reports, was appointed by Khamenei to ensure the regime\u2019s survival in the event of an assassination, is now the de facto strongman of the regime, and is described as \u201cpragmatic\u201d \u2014 will be open to a ceasefire deal on terms of capitulation to the White House. For the masses in Iran, in any case, he is known as one of those responsible for the massacre of protesters at the beginning of the year. If reports are accurate regarding the formal appointment of Khamenei\u2019s son, Mojtaba, to the position of \u201cSupreme Leader\u201d, this too symbolises continuity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In Venezuela, US imperialism abducted a sitting president in order to engineer a \u201cregime adjustment\u201d, that is, to subordinate the regime to Washington\u2019s dictates. Regarding Iran, the Trump administration claims that senior regime officials are now open to returning to negotiations, but that in Washington \u2014 which blew up the negotiations when it launched the offensive \u2014 the possibility is being rejected. Counter\u2011claims have been voiced, and it is clear that at least key figures within the Tehran regime, which is in a survival crisis, view signing a surrender agreement under fire \u2014 with the same Trump who collapsed the previous agreement \u2014 as political suicide. Even after the previous round in June, the regime defiantly refused to accept Trump\u2019s dictates. Thus, a capitulation deal does not appear to be on the immediate agenda, although the possibility of a tactical attempt to reach a new ceasefire arrangement cannot be ruled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It is still unclear how far the military offensive will go in destabilising Iran and the region, given that the Trump administration has an interest in containing the event.<\/strong>\u00a0Trump is under public pressure in the US.\u00a0An initial poll estimated<\/a>\u00a041% support and 42% opposition to the offensive among registered voters, and later a general poll showed\u00a0only around 27% support\u00a0<\/a>among the wider public. At least 6 US soldiers have been killed so far, and there is concern about deterioration in the US economic situation. A day before the offensive,\u00a0a Gallup poll was published<\/a>\u00a0showing a changeover in US public opinion, with general public sympathy for Israel falling below the level of sympathy for the Palestinians \u2014 a sentiment that may also manifest in the context of the offensive on Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In his remarks on Monday<\/a>, Trump did not include regime change in the list of the offensive\u2019s supposed objectives, which he defined as further degrading naval and ballistic capabilities, preventing a military nuclear option, and weakening the regime\u2019s capacity to support its proxies in the region. An air\u2011strike campaign alone cannot impose regime change, particularly given the size of Iran\u2019s territory and population. The scale of air power concentrated in the region potentially allows for a military offensive lasting several weeks,\u00a0but it is significantly smaller<\/a>\u00a0than the equivalent force assembled on the eve of the 2003 invasion of Iraq.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trump\u2019s boast that\u00a0he does not rule out<\/a>\u00a0sending ground forces was also made previously regarding Venezuela, but aside from a potential intervention by commando units, a large\u2011scale deployment of forces to Iran is unlikely in the coming weeks, as it would exact a heavy price from the interests of US imperialism and provoke significant public anger in the US \u2014 including among the Trumpist MAGA movement, elements of which have already clashed with Trump in recent months, mainly over foreign policy. Thus, the ultra\u2011right politician Marjorie Taylor Greene\u00a0is now exclaiming<\/a>:\u00a0\u201cWe promised no more foreign wars, no more regime change\u201d<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The fact that French President Macron, who heads the strongest military power in the European Union, was pushed to publicly oppose the offensive highlights concerns among sections of Europe\u2019s ruling classes about the potentially far\u2011reaching destabilising consequences in the region, and even for the global economy, and for public anger. This is echoed in the opposition expressed by the Spanish state government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Meanwhile, the offensive enjoys the support of the governments of Britain and Germany, and of the Arab regimes in the region, although the latter made sure to publicly distance themselves from the idea before it began, in light of Arab public opinion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A broad survey<\/a>\u00a0across the Arab world published at the beginning of January showed majorities of 84% and 77%, respectively, who view the policies of the Israeli regime and the US regime as threats to regional security \u2014 44% saw the State of Israel as the primary threat to security in the region, 21% identified the US in that role, while 6%, in third place, defined Iran as such. Therefore, in the previous round,\u00a0the Arab Gulf states even publicly condemned<\/a>\u00a0the attack on Iran. Yet now they find themselves in open confrontation with the regime in Tehran, as does Erdo\u011fan\u2019s regime in Turkey, which is manoeuvring between the pressures. The longer the regional war continues, the higher the price it will exact from the Gulf states \u2014 including damage to tourism and trade, the erosion of personal security not only under Iranian missiles but also in the face of a growing danger of individual revenge attacks, and destabilising consequences in general.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The d\u00e9tente between Saudi Arabia and Iran under Beijing\u2019s auspices since 2023 survived until the current offensive despite constant tension. For the Saudi monarchy, it was important to publicly present a position demanding a diplomatic solution and\u00a0to declare at the end of January<\/a>\u00a0that Saudi airspace would not be used for military action against Iran.\u00a0Yet according to the Washington Post<\/a>, behind the scenes bin Salman acted in parallel with Netanyahu to persuade Trump to carry out the offensive, despite assessments by US intelligence agencies that the regime in Tehran is not expected to pose any significant military threat to the US in the coming decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A week and a half before the offensive began, Russia, China, and Iran held a military exercise in Hormuz, and a spokesperson for Putin, Nikolai Patrushev,\u00a0expressed<\/a>\u00a0an aspiration to build a\u00a0\u201cmultipolar world order on the oceans\u201d<\/em>\u00a0in the face of Western hegemony, and ostensibly in an attempt to enlist the BRICS bloc in this direction. Yet once again, Beijing and Moscow \u2014 which invested in strengthening the regime in Tehran and did not join the snapback of UN\u2011backed sanctions in September \u2014 are forced to watch from the sidelines, unable to mount any real response to the blows dealt by US imperialism to their geo\u2011strategic interests, given the regional balance of forces. The surge in oil prices may benefit Russian exports in the short term, but it pales in comparison to the overall consequences of the war. For China, the difficulty is far greater due to its heavy dependence on oil and LNG imports through Hormuz. So far, the Chinese regime has limited itself to condemnations while attempting to extract propaganda gains from its opposition to the US offensive in the \u201cGlobal South\u201d, but it is not impossible that it will also turn to breaking the relative lull in the trade war with the US as a lever of pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Netanyahu\u2019s government of death is once again at the height of its hubris. Unlike Trump, it faces no domestic public pressure to stop the war. All establishment parties and the establishment press, speaking with one voice, have lined up to praise Netanyahu and Trump for the offensive<\/strong>, and even beforehand assisted the government for weeks in mobilising support for it, supposedly once again to remove existential threats from millions of Israelis.<\/p>\n\n\n\nThe war is spreading<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Demonstrations around the world<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Potential for entanglement<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
The regimes in the region on a collision course<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
The hubris of Netanyahu\u2019s \u201cgovernment of death\u201d<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n