{"id":268,"date":"2025-06-29T22:01:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-29T19:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/socialiststruggle.org\/en\/?p=268"},"modified":"2026-03-24T14:53:29","modified_gmt":"2026-03-24T12:53:29","slug":"ceasefire-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/socialiststruggle.org\/en\/2025\/06\/ceasefire-iran\/","title":{"rendered":"Superficial \u201cvictory\u201d projected by Israeli government as bloodbath in Gaza goes on"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The ceasefire in the Israel\u2013Iran war has brought after twelve days an end, for now, to the aerial bombing offensive that killed hundreds of Iranian civilians, as well as to the counter-offensive in which missile strikes claimed the lives of dozens of civilians, across nationalities, in the State of Israel. In the final hours before the ceasefire took effect, further casualties were reported from airstrikes in Iran, and four more residents were killed when a missile struck a residential building in Beersheba in Israel. The state of emergency, which had temporarily assisted both regimes in parallel to suppress the development of protest movements against them, has also been lifted for the time being. However, Israel\u2019s war of annihilation in the Gaza Strip continues at full intensity, trampling also on the fate of the hostages. Meanwhile, both Trump and Netanyahu are indulging in hubristic celebrations of an image of a military victory over the regime in Tehran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At the NATO summit in The Hague, Trump was greeted with a wave of sycophancy befitting his inflated narcissism. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, the former Dutch prime minister, had already\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nato.int\/cps\/en\/natohq\/opinions_236418.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">declared<\/a>\u00a0prior to the ceasefire that in his view, the US airstrikes on Iran on 22 June did not violate international law \u2014 something that in any case has never restrained Washington\u2019s military aggression. During the summit, Rutte even referred to Trump as \u201cdaddy\u201d, as he flattered Trump who was self-congratulating his intervention in the conflict between the two regimes in the region which he likened to a scuffle between children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u2018World\u2019s Policeman\u2019<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The US President, whose brand of right-wing populism included spreading promises to end wars, has thus far failed in his attempt to impose a swift ceasefire in Ukraine, and has instead been drawn into showcase bombing campaigns in Yemen and Iran. Trump, despite his capricious nature, is fundamentally seeking to reassert a \u2018unipolar\u2019 dynamic in international relations. The bombing of Iran was intended to signal who is \u2018the landlord\u2019 in the Middle East and the global system. A return, ostensibly, to the role of the \u2018world policeman\u2019. This, while bolstering and relying on the war machine of Israeli capitalism to bring about a substantial shift in the regional balance of power against the interests of the \u201cAxis of Resistance\u201d alliance led by Tehran, as well as those of the China\u2013Russia imperialist bloc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Moscow and Beijing could not afford to mount any serious challenge to Washington in defence of their interests in the survival of the regime in Tehran. A scenario of global \u2018theatre convergence\u2019 was not on the table. Not coincidentally, the strategic agreement signed between Moscow and Tehran earlier this year did not include a mutual defence clause, unlike the parallel agreement with North Korea. Putin even referred embarrassedly to the absence of military support for Tehran, which has supplied drones for the Russian offensive in Ukraine, claiming that Moscow must remain neutral\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/9LApZ\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">due to the large Russian-speaking minority<\/a>\u00a0in the State of Israel. Earlier, Russian officials\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/middle-east\/russia-warns-strike-irans-bushehr-nuclear-plant-could-cause-chernobyl-style-2025-06-19\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">stated<\/a>\u00a0they had received assurances from the Israeli government that the nuclear power plant in Bushehr, built with Russian investment and under ongoing Russian development, would not be targeted \u2014 a strike on the facility could trigger a regional disaster akin to Chernobyl. At the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in China, held the day after the NATO summit, the defence ministers of Russia and Iran were both\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.al-monitor.com\/originals\/2025\/06\/china-hosts-iran-russia-defence-ministers-against-backdrop-turmoil\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">present<\/a>, but no dramatic declarations were made. Beijing, navigating in a weakened position, prefers avoiding renewed escalation of tensions with Washington.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Despite all this, US imperialism, though still the world\u2019s dominant economic and military power, is in a significantly weakened position to where it was at the start of the century, and lacks the capacity to launch and sustain long-term military occupations of the type of Afghanistan and Iraq. Even if the show of force in Iran has revived hopes among European rulers of harnessing renewed US commitment to deterring Russian imperialism and its allies, the announcement of increased military spending in Europe amid inter-imperialist tensions with Moscow is aimed at reducing dependence on US imperialism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Trump, angered by the spike in oil prices following the military escalation in the Middle East, surprised members of his own administration by declaring, on his privately owned social media platform, upon the announcement of the ceasefire, that \u201c<em>China can now resume buying oil from Iran<\/em>\u201d. This aligns with the current pause in the trade war with Chinese imperialism, part of a tendency to manoeuvre via zigzags aimed at cushioning the shocks to the US and global economy triggered by his policies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Regime in Tehran and the Nuclear Programme<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The regime in Tehran, lacking meaningful backing from global powers and without effective military support capacity of its weakened regional allies, exposed a substantial weakness when it discarded all its threats of harsh retaliation. Even a symbolic decision by the Iranian parliament to close the Strait of Hormuz was not implemented, apparently due to fears of entangling consequences, potentially amounting to an existential crisis for the regime. Instead, in a semi-open manner, a token strike on a US base in Qatar was coordinated to provide minimal political justification for agreeing to a ceasefire. Throughout the twelve days of bombings, the regime\u2019s messaging was contradictory, though it did include expressions of willingness to resume negotiations under the condition of a ceasefire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nevertheless, and despite reports of renewed talks between Washington and Tehran next week \u2014 on a coercive arrangement Trump refers to as \u201cpeace\u201d \u2014 and despite Iranian President Pezeshkian\u2019s rhetoric now returning to a focus on diplomacy, the ruler Khamenei delivered a victory speech from hiding, claiming that it was the US that had suffered a blow. It was a desperate attempt to shape domestic public opinion and obscure the regime\u2019s significant losses in assets and capabilities at this stage. This, despite that the missile salvos in the counter-offensive, albeit with a limited military effectiveness, managed to breach one of the most developed air defence systems in the world and demonstrated destructive power in urban centres within the State of Israel which generally surpassed long-range barrages launched in earlier stages by Hezbollah and the Houthis. And, despite that for the Iranian regime, mere political survival may be considered a relative victory, allowing for the restoration of capabilities and strategic regrouping. The Iranian parliament has decided to suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), citing the fact that Iran was attacked by two nuclear powers, effectively with the IAEA\u2019s acquiescence. The wing within the Iranian regime that advocates for a military nuclear programme as a strategic deterrent, which already saw warning signs in Iraq, Libya, and Syria, received in the attack on Iran further sharp confirmation, reinforcing its premise that only nuclear weapons can deter military aggression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Trump and Netanyahu have boasted that they completely obliterated Iran\u2019s nuclear programme. Trump even\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/video\/newsfeed\/2025\/6\/25\/trump-compares-iran-strikes-to-hiroshima-and-nagasaki#flips-6374850736112:0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">compared<\/a>\u00a0the US intervention to the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, saying: \u201c<em>That was essentially the same thing\u2026 this ended the war<\/em>\u201d. Reports on the extent of the damage at this stage remain largely contradictory. While\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2025\/06\/24\/politics\/intel-assessment-us-strikes-iran-nuclear-sites\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">an initial assessment by the US Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA)<\/a>\u00a0suggested that the strikes on the three nuclear sites caused infrastructural damage that Tehran\u2019s regime could recover from within a few months,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2025\/06\/25\/politics\/cia-iran-nuclear-strikes-assessments\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">the CIA issued a statement claiming it possesses evidence, yet-unpublished, of \u201csevere damage\u201d<\/a>. It is likely that the unprecedented use of Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bunker-busting bombs \u2014 currently the most powerful conventional weapon \u2014 inflicted significant damage, and the full picture may become clearer in time. Still, the claim of total destruction appears to be an exaggeration for propaganda purposes. Even within the Israeli regime there is recognition that the results of the Israeli and US bombings, including the assassinations of scientific cadre, did not inflict an irreversible situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It appears that the bulk of Iran\u2019s enriched uranium stockpile was concealed and not damaged in the attack. So far, the regime in Tehran has made no concessions in terms of commitments, even implicit rhetorical ones, regarding avoiding a resumption of enrichment. The neighbouring nuclear power to the southeast, Pakistan, which expressed support for the Iranian regime and rhetorically condemned the US bombing \u2014 less than 24 hours after announcing it would recommend Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize for his supposed role in de-escalating tensions with rival nuclear power India \u2014 remains heavily dependent on US imperialism. Nonetheless, it may serve as a source of components for the Iranian nuclear programme, as has been alleged in some reports that was done in the past.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Israeli War Minister Israel Katz has instructed the military to formulate an \u201cenforcement plan\u201d for the nuclear and missile production projects in Iran, and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.mako.co.il\/news-military\/f239747af17c5910\/Article-086bbf66b62b791027.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">threatened<\/a>\u00a0that \u201c<em>Operation \u2018a People as a Lion\u2019 was just the trailer for a new Israeli policy \u2014 after 7 October, immunity is over<\/em>\u201d. Depending on developments in the coming weeks and months, the Netanyahu government may still decide to assassinate Khamenei. Beyond that, in response to efforts to rebuild the nuclear programme, or at least based on claims of such efforts, it is entirely plausible that the top echelon of the Israeli regime, whether under the current ruling coalition or a future configuration, will launch further \u2018rounds\u2019 of bombings in Iran, while being prepared to \u2018absorb\u2019 retaliatory actions \u2014 meaning, receiving reports from the comfort of atomic bunkers about casualties and injuries among the working class, of all nationalities, in the State of Israel. This would be in addition to a continued proxy conflict between the regimes and a continued \u2018cold war\u2019 of sabotage and assassinations. The Israel\u2013Iran conflict, even after a phase of peak confrontation, cannot fundamentally stabilise given the regional dominance ambitions of both regimes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u2018Regime Change\u2019<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The governments of Israel and the US played with the idea of \u2018regime change\u2019 in Iran. It was clear to both that, despite military superiority, they lack the practical capacity in the short term to impose \u2018from above\u2019 a replacement of the regime through a campaign of aerial bombings,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.mako.co.il\/news-military\/Israel_iran_war\/Article-a68b71ffb18a791026.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">and small commando units<\/a>, and in the absence of a locally organised political force collaborating with them. Nonetheless, there was a deliberate push, particularly by the Israeli government, to promote a vector of destabilisation and \u2018regime change\u2019, both rhetorically, through a hypocritical populist appeal to the bombed masses in Iran, and in the selection of certain \u2018target bank\u2019 sites \u2014 such as the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/socialiststruggle.org\/maavak\/2025\/06\/%D7%9C%D7%A2%D7%A6%D7%95%D7%A8-%D7%90%D7%AA-%D7%9E%D7%9C%D7%97%D7%9E%D7%AA-%D7%99%D7%A9%D7%A8%D7%90%D7%9C-%D7%90%D7%99%D7%A8%D7%90%D7%9F\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bombing of the Iranian state broadcasting building<\/a>\u00a0or the strike on the Basij militia headquarters (regime-loyalist thugs). Seemingly the political logic was that images of the Tehran regime\u2019s humiliation would fuel internal tensions within the regime, ease the path for forces that might rise up against it, and generate sympathy for the Israeli offensive as a supposedly liberating force. Yet the bulk of the masses in Iran, who aspire to democratic and social liberation, see through the manipulative propaganda of the nuclear powers, which seek a regime aligned with their regional interests \u2014 akin to the old dictatorship of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, which was a key regional ally of Israeli capitalism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A succession fight has already begun over the position of Supreme Leader, and with the ceasefire, a renewed power struggle appears to be unfolding between different wings of the regime over recalibrating its strategic course to stabilise its rule. While the wing inclined toward diplomatic flexibility cannot rely on an alliance with US imperialism, the hardline wing is likely to push for the restoration of military capabilities and even retaliatory actions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The exiled crown prince of the Shah\u2019s former dictatorship, Reza Pahlavi Jr., immediately\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/media-telecom\/regime-change-is-only-solution-iran-shahs-son-says-2025-06-23\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">called<\/a>\u00a0on the Trump administration to recognise the need for \u2018regime change\u2019, and had already\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/PahlaviReza\/status\/1935041888886866181\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">declared<\/a>\u00a0prior to the US bombing that \u201cthe Islamic Republic has reached its end\u201d. Meanwhile, the France-based National Council of Resistance of Iran \u2014 a front organisation for the Mojahedin-e-Khalq (MEK) militia, a petty-bourgeois faction of liberal political Islam that considers itself left-wing, opposed the Shah\u2019s regime, and allegedly maintains links with Mossad and the CIA \u2014 did not condemn the military onslaught on Iran. It\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/ncri-statements\/terrorism-fundamentalism\/mrs-maryam-rajavi-welcoming-the-ceasefire-and-end-of-the-foreign-war\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">called<\/a>\u00a0for \u2018regime change\u2019 following the ceasefire, albeit ostensibly by the Iranian people themselves, on the basis of a democratic platform and nuclear disarmament. In contrast, independent workers\u2019 organisations within Iran, who face repression by the regime,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/cpiran.org\/shared-statement-by-independent-iranian-organizations-opposing-war-and-warmongering-policies\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">issued<\/a>\u00a0a clear denunciation of the bombings: \u201c<em>We, as independent workers\u2019 and grassroots organizations in Iran, hold no illusions that the United States or Israel intend to bring freedom, equality, or justice to us, just as we hold no illusions about the repressive, interventionist, warmongering, and anti-worker nature of the Islamic Republic<\/em>\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u201cNow the US will save Netanyahu\u201d<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Shortly before the Israeli offensive on Iran, tensions escalated between the White House and Netanyahu\u2019s government, which was perceived as insufficiently obedient to the business and geopolitical interests of US imperialism. In April, Trump even intervened to delay the Israeli bombing plan. Eventually, however, the operation proved \u2018smoother\u2019 than Washington had feared, tipping the internal debate within the Trump administration and to acceding to Israeli pressure to shift from massive arms transfers to the Israeli military and deployment of forces in the region, to direct military intervention by air and sea. The euphoria in Netanyahu\u2019s government was briefly dampened when Trump publicly rebuked an attempt at another showcase bombing raid after the ceasefire was supposed to come into effect. Yet the \u2018caesar\u2019 in the White House, who appeared to have launched the offensive by his own individual decision, and without congressional approval \u2014 in line with the authoritarian shift of the US presidency toward parliamentary Bonapartism \u2014 knew how to reward obedience. He issued a public attack on the Israeli state judiciary and called for Netanyahu\u2019s trial to be cancelled,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/time.com\/7297951\/trump-netanyahu-friend-relationship-israel-prime-minister-corruption-trial-politics\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">declaring<\/a>: \u201cIt was the United States of America that saved Israel, and now it is going to be the United States of America that saves Bibi Netanyahu\u201d!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">During the offensive on Iran, Netanyahu enjoyed wall-to-wall support from the Israeli establishment \u2018opposition\u2019 and among the ruling class at large, with full collaboration from the leadership of the General Histadrut trade union federation.. He is now considering snap elections, even though the \u2018victory\u2019 propaganda has had limited impact on his polling, and his ruling coalition has never had the direct support of a majority in Israeli public opinion. In fact,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.kan.org.il\/content\/kan-news\/politic\/925319\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">a clear majority of 52%<\/a>\u00a0still supports his resignation as prime minister. The war scenario with Iran, prepared in full operational detail as early as November, before Trump entered the White House, was arguably Netanyahu\u2019s last remaining political lifeline. But while his political survival was certainly some factor in the dynamic, the Israel\u2013Iran war was not, in essence, a \u2018war to rescue Netanyahu\u2019. The broad support it received from his rivals within the Israeli ruling class underscores this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Israeli regime is determined to prevent any other regime in the region from acquiring nuclear weapons. For decades, Netanyahu has been a political marker for the ambition of dismantling the Iranian nuclear programme. Yet the last time he attempted to initiate a military offensive \u2014\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.haaretz.co.il\/news\/politics\/2015-08-21\/ty-article\/0000017f-e8ab-da9b-a1ff-ecef38340000\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">on several occasions between 2010 and 2012<\/a>, in coordination with then-Defence Minister Ehud Barak \u2014 he was isolated within the Israeli regime top, and the plan was obstructed. However, Hamas\u2019s surprise attack on 7 October 2023 was seen not only by Netanyahu\u2019s \u2018ultra right-wing\u2019 government but by the Israeli ruling class as a whole as a golden opportunity to demonstrate unprecedented, concentrated military force. This with the aim to fortify Israeli capitalism and its occupation regime imposed over the Palestinians, through inflicting a blood-soaked defeat on the Palestinian people, as well as, as noted, to deliver a regional blow to the \u201cAxis of Resistance\u201d and to Tehran. The turn to a strategic offensive against Tehran was also intended to send a message that the region\u2019s sole nuclear power can serve as a contractor for the interests of Western imperialist powers, and eventually also for the interests of Arab regimes as well \u2014 despite the fact that publicly those regimes were compelled to issue blunt condemnations of the Israeli offensive, fearing a military spiral with ground-shaking consequences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trump\u2019s Agenda: Normalisation, Ethnic Cleansing, and Annexation<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Following the Israel\u2013Iran ceasefire, Trump\u2019s special envoy to the Middle East, real estate tycoon Steve Witkoff,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/NQwaDLmOCq4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">claimed<\/a>\u00a0that additional Arab and Muslim states would soon announce normalised relations with the State of Israel. In effect, he implies an attempt to realise the strategic \u2018golden parachute\u2019 scenario long fantasised about by the Israeli ruling class \u2014 an exit from the general war crisis, including wrapping up the bulk of the offensive on the Gaza Strip, through resuming the process of Israeli\u2013Arab \u2018normalisation\u2019, which Hamas\u2019s 7 October offensive had sought to derail.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.israelhayom.co.il\/news\/geopolitics\/article\/18288137\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">According to early reports<\/a>, Netanyahu, in an \u201ceuphoric\u201d phone call with Trump, agreed to pursue a regional deal with the following parameters: an end to military operations in Gaza within two weeks and the deployment of an occupation force comprising Egypt, the UAE, and two other states to assume control over the Gaza Strip; the expulsion of Hamas\u2019s leadership and the release of hostages; a \u201cvoluntary\u201d emigration arrangement for Gaza residents; the accession of Saudi Arabia, the al-Sharaa regime in Syria, and other Arab and Muslim states, such as Indonesia, to normalisation under the Abraham Accords; a lip service by the Israeli government, as Netanyahu did in the past, to a \u2018future solution\u2019 of \u201ctwo states\u201d, allegedly contingent upon changes in the Palestinian Authority; and, US government recognition of an official \u201capplication of sovereignty\u201d by the State of Israel over parts of the West Bank.\u00a0<strong>In other words:<\/strong>\u00a0<strong>annexation, ethnic cleansing, and normalisation of the occupation and brutal oppression of the Palestinians.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At least part of the far right in Netanyahu\u2019s coalition government, which aspires to entrenching moves of ethnic cleansing and renewed colonisation of the Gaza Strip, will be reluctant to cooperate with any political concessions in the context of any such potential deals. In any case, this is an unpopular ruling coalition that has already entered a countdown to its end, facing mounting pressure for a commission of inquiry and resignation. But even if Netanyahu secures a parliamentary \u2018safety net\u2019 from his establishment \u2018opposition\u2019 opponents-allies, Trump\u2019s provocative plan is likely to fuel further mass anger toward US imperialism\u2019s role in the region and the Israeli occupation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Since 7 October, the region-wide mass rage at crimes of genocide and a range of mass atrocities in the Gaza Strip has acted as a key barrier to the Saudi monarchy publicly allying with Israeli capitalism. Although the scale of solidarity protests in the Middle East, under heavy repression \u2014 with the exception of the massive rallies organised by the Houthi government in Yemen \u2014 was relatively limited compared to Morocco and several other locations across the world, regional rulers remain wary of the potential for that profound mass rage over Gaza, and over the economic situation and political repression, to erupt into mass uprisings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Efforts to break open anew a path for the normalisation process will face political obstacles and may contribute to a renewed wave of mass protests. Will Saudi Crown Prince bin Salman gamble on a deal with the government most identified with the atrocities in Gaza, in the last months of its existence? Can the unstable Syrian al-Sharaa regime afford to normalise relations, especially in a way that leaves the Golan Heights controlled by the State of Israel? Can Indonesia\u2019s government, already facing mass unrest, withstand popular outrage over openly siding with the Israeli occupation? Will Hamas \u2014 which, according to Israeli military estimates,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.mako.co.il\/news-n12_magazine\/6a6d777d11485910\/Article-c91f91efc98a791026.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">still commands around 26,000 fighters in the Gaza Strip<\/a>\u00a0after some 21 months of historic bloodbath \u2014 agree to the exile of its leaders, the relinquishing of civilian governance in Gaza, and passively cooperate with a new occupation framework? Beyond Hamas, it is likely that other Palestinian factions in Gaza will, sooner or later, express the accumulated popular frustration at the imposition of new forms of occupation, and challenge the systematic, murderous trampling of millions of Palestinians\u2019 aspirations for national and social liberation and a life of dignity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Like Six Atom Bombs<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Massacres in the Gaza Strip re-escalated during the Israel\u2013Iran war. The occupying power, which is conducting a war of annihilation, has thus far dropped\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.aa.com.tr\/en\/middle-east\/israel-dropped-100-000-tons-of-explosives-over-gaza-wiped-out-2-200-families-media-office\/3561614\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">over 100,000 tonnes of explosives<\/a>\u00a0on the heads of the besieged and starved population \u2014 an aggregate blast yield equivalent to six times the atomic bomb dropped by US imperialism on the population of Hiroshima in 1945. In Gaza, 2,200 families have been wiped out, and the official, conservative death toll stands at 55,000 residents, with thousands still buried beneath rubble, and more mass graves may be discovered. Among the many perished, over 17,000 under the age of 18 and around 9,100 women. Various studies have suggested the actual number of fatalities may be\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/vD0VE\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">around 100,000<\/a>, and even significantly higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Completely cynically, the Israeli ruling class effectively and systematically stoked existential fears among the Jewish population in Israel to mobilise support for its blood-soaked military campaign locally and regionally. This was particularly evident regarding the bombings in Iran, which garnered\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.idi.org.il\/articles\/59725\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">around 82% support among the Jewish population<\/a>, compared to approximately 11% among Palestinian\u2013Arab residents under the Israeli state. 73% of the Jewish population, and even 51% of those considering themselves as \u2018left\u2019 \u2014 believed the Israeli military should disregard, or mostly disregard, the suffering of Iranian civilians \u2014 even worse rates than the blind, chauvinist public attitude nurtured by the Israeli establishment towards the situation of the population in Gaza. However, a clear majority of the general public in Israel \u2014\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.kan.org.il\/content\/kan-news\/politic\/925319\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">62% according to polling after the Israel\u2013Iran ceasefire<\/a>\u00a0\u2014 and of the Jewish population in particular, have in recent months supported ending the military offensive on Gaza. Netanyahu\u2019s campaign for a \u201ctotal victory\u201d is thus faltering. Still, fear of the Iranian regime remains pronounced \u2014 55% of the general public reported they were \u201cfearful\u201d following the ceasefire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The fact that even if the regime in Tehran were to acquire a nuclear weapon, it would be deterred by the threat of mutual destruction, the political ramifications of mass Palestinian casualties, and the regional consequences of radioactive fallout, doesn\u2019t rule out extreme scenarios, just as a possibility cannot be excluded that, under conditions of a future extreme crisis, Israeli capitalism might itself initiate the use of nuclear weapons. The reactionary rhetoric of the Iranian regime provides political assistance in itself to the Israeli regime in the maintenance of mass existential fear, further inflamed by the consciousness impact of missile-induced destruction and killing. That existential fear continues to bind the bulk of the working class and poor in the State of Israel, decisively in the Jewish population, to be drawn into supporting wars and destructive policies intended to materialise the political programme of one camp or another of Israeli capital and world imperialist powers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As an expression of a mass sentiment of helplessness and impasse in the struggle across the region and globally in the face of the monstrous atrocities relentlessly inflicted by the Israeli war machine under Washington\u2019s protection, there were also expressions of relief at the Iranian missile salvos. Yet working-class families were harmed, across nationalities, even though only a fraction in comparison with the magnitude of atrocities inflicted by Israeli capitalism upon the Palestinians and the region. From the standpoint of building a struggle in the interests of the whole of the working class and oppressed masses in the region in root solution to the horrors of the war of extermination in Gaza and the regional war, it would be illusory to assume that the missile salvos of the Iranian military on population centres \u2014 despite the fact that military targets are embedded among civilians \u2014 played a progressive role.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Moreover, even a greater destructive force, as the Israeli government initially anticipated, would not in itself have been capable of causing millions of Israelis to \u2018disillusion\u2019 fundamentally in regards to the propaganda on the war\u2019s objectives. Mass frustration can also be exploited and redirected by hard-right and far-right forces to pursue even more far-reaching \u2018military solutions\u2019, with even more catastrophic consequences. Netanyahu, for example, claimed that the hitting of residential buildings by the Iranian missiles only demonstrated how dangerous the Iranian regime would be if it possessed nuclear weapons \u2014 which allegedly it was on the cusp of breaking through to obtain. Of course, he does not apply the same logic to the Israeli nuclear power, whose airstrikes on residential buildings in Iran were just one small segment in a whole trail of devastation and bereavement it inflicted across the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Even when patience for a prolonged war wears thin, the process by which mass political conclusions are drawn, especially in the absence of a class-based, socialist left as a mass reference point, is necessarily shaped by confusing and contradictory pressures, and it unfolds differently across different social strata in the population under the influence of a complex array of factors. There is no automatic mechanism in reality that drives conclusions leftward in response to ruling-class policies that entail catastrophe for the masses, just as was underscored by the cynical manipulation of the mass shock from Hamas\u2019s 7 October offensive, which included horrific reactionary massacres of civilians. Even now, despite widespread Israeli public opposition to the continuation of the offensive on Gaza, in most cases this does not extend to opposition to the entire offensive from its inception.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A struggle to end the bloodshed and block the nightmare vision of Trump and Netanyahu<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the face of the brutal military aggression of Israeli capitalism, there is undoubtedly a right to self-defensive action, including militarily. But fundamentally, the key to halting the war machine of Israeli capitalism, to closing the gates of hell, lies in building a systematic struggle relying on the independent mobilisation and organisation of the working class and oppressed communities, in striving to shift the balance of forces against all ruling classes fuelling the region\u2019s horrors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Demonstrations and other steps of struggle must be linked to an agenda of a broad and generalised struggle against the war of annihilation and occupation, against Trump and US imperialism, against austerity in the service of billionaires, against governments and corporate giants sustaining exploitation and poverty \u2014 and for the uprooting of the root causes of regional and global power struggles between rival capitalist powers who pit working and impoverished masses against each other, and specifically capitalist regimes founded on oppression, subjugation and inequality. Expanding the political agenda of the protests can also assist in enlarging participation, and also signal the need for independent political organising in opposition to the establishment parties. A systemic capitalist crisis that in the present era is accelerating arms races, wars, and mass atrocities, necessitates an alternative of a cross-border struggle for revolutionary socialist transformation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Trump and Netanyahu now seek to pivot, ostensibly, from the language of bombs to that of diplomacy under the threat of bombs \u2014 \u201cpeace through strength\u201d. Their regional \u2018peace\u2019 vision points to a dystopia of poverty, repression, occupation, and inevitably, renewed outbreaks of endless bloodshed. While Trump attempts to revive lip service more hollow and caricaturistic than ever to a \u2018two-state solution\u2019 for the sake of deal-making with regimes in the region, there is no constellation in which the aspirations of millions of Palestinians for a genuinely independent national state, decent standard of living, and a complete end to the oppression and expulsion, including the plight of the Palestinian refugees, could be fulfilled under Israeli capitalism and US imperialism\u2019s intervention in the region. There is no prospect for regional peace without full liberation and equality for Palestinians, and without the overthrow of all oligarchic regimes in the region, including the Israeli regime and its counterpart in Tehran, through mass epic struggles in a region that has already witnessed some of the largest revolutionary uprisings of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A class-based socialist left emphasises the need to fight for an alternative of democratic, socialist governments rooted in cross-community struggles of working people, aiming to mobilise the region\u2019s vast resources through public ownership and democratic planning to ensure equal welfare for all, end all forms of discrimination, and guarantee full rights to all nations, within a framework of regional cooperation, including forming a socialist confederation on a voluntary and equal basis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">During the military confrontation between Israel and Iran, tens of thousands demonstrated in cities across the world against the war of annihilation in Gaza and the military aggression of Washington and Israeli capitalism. Simultaneously, in the US, millions participated in\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2025\/jun\/19\/no-kings-how-many-protesters-attended\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">the largest wave of protest yet\u00a0<\/a>against the Trump administration, under the banner \u201cNo Kings\u201d. Building the international solidarity protests, alongside actions by organised labour to halt arms shipments \u2014 such as the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/HW7kQrRc2T8\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">intervention by port workers in Marseille<\/a>\u00a0\u2014 and sanctions against Israeli capital and against governments and corporations de facto supporting the military campaign, are part of the direction required.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Locally, as a class-based socialist left organisation, we support immediate demands for improved protection and shelters across communities, but as part of the struggle to end the war \u2014 we have opposed and participated in the building of the struggle against the war of Netanyahu\u2019s government of death from day one, including advocating protests and strike actions to stop the war machine, as well as acts of refusal (whether declared or not) against military draft orders where relevant.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The ceasefire between Israel and Iran may also ease conditions for renewed development of protests among Palestinians, and in parallel also among sections of the Israeli public \u2014 some families of hostages and bereaved Israeli families have called for the ceasefire to be extended to Gaza. With military restrictions on civilian assemblies within the Green Line lifted, which were previously used to suppress small protest vigils, now demonstrations against Netanyahu\u2019s government and to stop the war have begun to regroup, including in Umm al-Fahm. The struggle must be renewed with greater force:\u00a0<strong>to stop the war of annihilation, to bring down Netanyahu\u2019s government of death, and to build a political alternative to the parties of war, occupation, and rule of capital.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The ceasefire in the Israel\u2013Iran war has brought after twelve days an end, for now, to the aerial bombing offensive that killed hundreds of Iranian civilians, as well as to the counter-offensive in which missile strikes claimed the lives of dozens of civilians, across nationalities, in the State of Israel. In the final hours before the ceasefire took effect, further [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":269,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,4],"tags":[29,7,2,30],"class_list":["post-268","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-imperialism-war","category-middle-east","tag-ceasefire","tag-imperialist-regime-change","tag-iran","tag-mop"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/socialiststruggle.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/268","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/socialiststruggle.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/socialiststruggle.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/socialiststruggle.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/socialiststruggle.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=268"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/socialiststruggle.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/268\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":324,"href":"https:\/\/socialiststruggle.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/268\/revisions\/324"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/socialiststruggle.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/269"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/socialiststruggle.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=268"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/socialiststruggle.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=268"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/socialiststruggle.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=268"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}